Robert TheodorsonThe 154th Open at Royal Birkdale marks the end of the major championship season, and what a season it has been.
The world of golf has been treated to some incredible surprises this season. We witnessed a repeat champion in Rory McIlroy at Augusta, winning his second green jacket in two years, an improbable, if not impossible first-time major winner in Aaron Rai who conquered the stubborn Aronimink Golf Course, and now two-time U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark who beat the field, the course, and the crowd to capture glory.
Now, with the last major championship of the 2026 season on the line, we take a look at our projected Top 25 golfers in the field to examine if we’ll get a first-time champion, an old fan favorite, or a miracle run from a relative unknown.
Table of Contents
The 154th Open at Royal Birkdale: Facts and Stats You Should Know Before Thursday
The Rankings:
25th – 21st – The Outsiders
20th – 16th – Cannot Be Counted Out
15th – 11th – A Betting Chance
10th – 1st – The Favorites
Just Missed the Cut
Conclusion
The 154th U.S. Open: Facts and Stats You Should Know Before Thursday
- Ernie Els is the last repeat champion of The Open, having accomplished that feat in 2012. Since that time, an astonishing twelve straight Opens have been won by a new challenger. Scottie Scheffler (2025) and Xander Schauffele (2024) are among those first-time winners who figure to be heavy favorites going into Birkdale.
- Jordan Spieth won his last major championship nine seasons ago at Royal Birkdale at the age of at 23 years old. Since that time, Spieth has had only one (2018) Top 10 finish at The Open.
- No golfer since Rory McIlroy (2014) has won another major championship since winning The Open. That list includes one-hit wonders as well as elite talents that are atop the leaderboard on their respective circuits each and every Sunday.
- This is the 11th time Royal Birkdale has hosted The Open. The first Open to be held at the venue was in 1954, Australian phenom Peter Thomson won the tournament with a score of 9-under par.
25th – 21st – The Outsiders
25th
Eugenio Chacarra
Representing Country: Spain
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: DNP
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on DP World Tour in 2026: KLM Open, Italian Open
Analysis and Reasoning: Back-to-back wins on the DP World Tour in June makes Chacarra a serious threat to contend on what will be his very first appearance at The Open, and third overall for his young career.
Chacarra was one of the first golfers to leave LIV on his own accord, joining the DP World Tour as a pathway towards playing in more major championships. At the time the move had looked foolish, but now it’s obvious that Chacarra made the right choice. With his second win, Chacarra, along with former LIV golfer Patrick Reed, has a real chance to earn his PGA Tour card for the 2027 season.
24th
Tom Kim
Representing Country: South Korea
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Genesis Scottish Open
Analysis and Reasoning: The PGA Tour’s last winner before The Open also is on a roll at major tournaments, having come in 3rd place at Shinnecock Hills. This isn’t Kim’s first foray into The Open, in fact he finished T2 in the 2023 Open which of course went to Brian Harman who had held an insurmountable lead of six strokes.
Despite not playing the in the first two majors of the season and having a poor first half of the season, Kim’s stock is trending upwards as his play is peaking at the perfect time to make a run for what would be the first major championship of his career.
23rd
Jordan Speith
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: 2017
2025 Open Finish: T40; 2-under par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2015), U.S. Open (2015), The Open (2017)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: The last man to win The Open at Royal Birkdale, Spieth, has to be considered one of the favorites despite the lack of on-field results.
His T58 finish at The John Deere Classic was an utter disappointment in what is widely considered one of the easier tournaments on tour – then came the controversial decision to skip the Genesis Scottish Open
Despite his relatively young age, Royal Birkdale may serve as one of Spieth’s last chances to stay in the company of golf’s elite stars. With the upcoming Track 1 / Track 2 changes to the PGA Tour, it would be absolutely wild to see Spieth, a three-time major winner relegated to Track 2.
22nd
Brian Harman
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: 2023
2025 Open Finish: T10; 9-under par
Major Championships Won: The Open (2023)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: The Open is Brian Harman’s preferred major. Aside from his recent win in 2023 one only needs to look at his overall major championship record to see that this is Harman’s time to shine.
Though he hasn’t been particularly competitive on the PGAT this season, Harman has made all three cuts during major season and figures to be in the conversation on Sunday at Royal Birkdale.
One of the more annoying players on tour due to his speed of play, or lack thereof, there won’t be many folks for Harman to repeat as champion, but as we saw with Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock, that hardly matters.
21st
J.J. Spaun
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T23; 6-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2025)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Valero Texas Open
Analysis and Reasoning: While he remains one of the better golfers on tour for the 2026 season, Spaun has failed to make the cut for all three majors this season, including the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills where Spaun spoiled the chance to defend his title.
In regular tournaments, Spaun plays like the winner he is and seems to always be visible on the leaderboard late into the weekend. If Spaun does have the jitters when it comes to major championships, he should remind himself that he is a major winner and is fully capable of not being a one-hit wonder.
20th – 16th – Cannot Be Counted Out
20th
Hideki Matsuyama
Representing Country: Japan
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T16; 7-under par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2021)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Finishing in the Top 10 an amazing four times in his career, Matsuyama definitely has what it takes to win, the only question is can the 34-year-old find a way to regain his championship form and make the 2026 U.S. Open his first win of the season?
Matsuyama has finished in the Top 10 four times since his debut in 2013, the most recent of which was a 6th-place finish at Pinehurst in 2024. Based on his major championship history, the U.S. Open is actually one of Matsuyama’s preferred majors despite being a former winner at The Masters.
19th
Aaron Rai
Representing Country: England
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T34; 3-under par
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2026)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: PGA Championship
Analysis and Reasoning: With a T11 finish at the U.S. Open, Rai has proved that he’s not just a one-hit wonder after his shocking victory at Aronimink earlier this season.
Rai’s record in The Open has been spotty, his best finish being a T19 at Royal St. George’s, the Open that Morikawa won with a 15-under par score, 11 strokes better than Rai.
While he does not figure to be a favorite to win his second major, Rai has shown he is fully capable of surprising us all.
18th
Bryson DeChambeau
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T10; 9-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2024, 2021)
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Singapore, LIV South Africa
Analysis and Reasoning: This has been the worst major season of DeChambeau’s career. In fact, the last time Bryson missed the cut for all majors in a season would be considered as an asterisk in the history books as it happened to occur during his rookie season with only one (U.S. Open) major played that year.
Despite being a two-time winner on LIV this season, the news of the league’s imminent demise has seemed to shatter some part of DeChambeau who just last year placed in the Top 10 in three major championships.
Fans should be on notice that Royal Birkdale is a nightmare matchup for Bryson and his style of play.
The two wins and the previous history are two strong reasons to keep Bryson in the Top 20, but it may not surprise folks if he fails to make the cut in a fourth consecutive major.
17th
Corey Conners
Representing Country: Canada
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T10; 9-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Conners’ resume is light, but it does include a Top 25 finish in 2024 and Top 10 in 2025 and making the cut at all three majors this season.
Conners picked a good time to have his best finish of the season, a T7 at the Travelers.
16th
Li Haotong
Representing Country: PRC
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T4; 11-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Li has finished in the Top 5 at The Open twice in his career; last season at Royal Portrush (T4) and some time ago at, you’ve guessed it, Royal Birkdale (2017). While Li is the only golfer on our list who has not previously won a PGA Tour event, his record at the most recent Open, as well as his performance at Royal Birkdale indicate that this will likely be his best showing in some time. Having made the cut at the two majors he was invited to (Masters & PGA Championship) Li is in excellent form and can hold his own against the best in the world.
15th – 11th – A Betting Chance
15th
Viktor Hovland
Representing Country: Norway
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T45; 1-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: The Travelers Championship served as a wake up call to the golf world that Viktor Hovland still has it. Is TPC River Highlands one of the easiest courses on tour? Yes. Is beating Scottie Scheffler in a playoff easy? No.
Hovland’s past finishes at The Open aren’t great, but it’s difficult to say no to the man who beat out Scheffler and the reigning U.S. Open winner in Wyndham Clark. His only Top 10 finish was a T4 back in 2022 at St. Andrews.
14th
Cameron Young
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The Players, Cadillac Championship
Analysis and Reasoning: Young has had some recent challenges with difficult courses at Muirfield and Aronimink. Still, the world’s number three golfer is a smart pick to win the U.S. Open for what would be his first major.
Young’s star may not have faded as strongly or as quickly as we all would imagine. Since his wins came close together, many expected Young to break through at both Augusta and Aronimink, but it wasn’t to be. Fortunately, Young remains focused and remains a force week in and week out.
13th
Tyrrell Hatton
Representing Country: England
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T16; 7-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Andalucia
Analysis and Reasoning: Hatton receives a huge bump in the standings by way of a convincing win at Real Club Valderama, considered one of, if not the most difficult course on LIV’s schedule.
Looking at his T4 finish at Oakmont last season, it’s hard to believe just how close Hatton came to winning the 125th U.S. Open if not for a blowup which plagued most, if not all of the field.
Last season I picked Hatton to win a major championship, The Open. While that prediction did not come to fruition, all signs currently point to Hatton being a major contender in the next two majors of 2026. His eventual win would be a surprise to most, but Hatton fans know he is absolutely capable of pulling off the big win which has eluded him in his illustrious career.
12th
Russell Henley
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T10; 9-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Charles Schwab Challenge
Analysis and Reasoning: Two straight Top 10 finishes in The Open, this tournament can become Henley’s bread and butter as he fast approaches forty and finds himself without that illusive first major championship.
One of the steadiest members of the PGAT, Henley is the opposite of a flashy star player, but gets the job done with the best of them. Look for Russell to be a Friday-Saturday leader.
11th
Collin Morikawa
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: 2021
2025 Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2020), The Open (2021)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Pebble Beach Pro Am
Analysis and Reasoning: Morikawa’s surprise Sunday charge at the Travelers was a thing of beauty and reminiscent of the Morikawa we saw earlier this season when the former Open winner won at Pebble Beach.
The Top 10 – The Favorites
10th
Jon Rahm
Representing Country: Spain
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T34; 3-under par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2023), U.S. Open (2021)
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Hong Kong, LIV Mexico City
Analysis and Reasoning: Despite the unceremonious exit at Shinnecock Hills, Rahm’s one bad round aside, he’s still an elite golfer who has a fantastic chance at winning his third major championship at Royal Birkdale.
One of the few LIV stars to commit to last week’s Scottish Open, Rahm was facing a missed cut until executing a near flawless second round to keep him in the tournament. The experience was nothing to write home about due to several costly miscues, but the experience should aid the Spainard in preparing for next week.
9th
Chris Gotterup
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: 3rd; 12-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Sony Open, Waste Management Phoenix Open, John Deere Classic
Analysis and Reasoning: A three-time winner on the 2026 season, Gotterup is coming into his own as one of the best golfers in the world and has an extremely bright and successful future ahead of him.
Gotterup has been on a bit of a charge since the 2025 U.S. Open and has since made the cut in every major along the way including a 3rd place finish at last year’s Open.
Proving he can compete at the toughest courses in the world, Gotterup remains a slight favorite to win a major championship over quite a few older and more established golfers.
Gotterup’s 9-under Sunday at the John Deere classic showed some new gritty resolve in the youngster’s game. Being able to make a Sunday push when you’re seemingly out of it is the hallmark of a true champion and so we’re on the lookout for Gotterup to repeat this feat on a bigger stage.
8th
Ludvig Aberg
Representing Country: Sweden
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T23; 6-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Aberg has been great at all majors this season but just seems to lack the will to pull off a Sunday miracle. If the young Swede is going to win his 3rd ever Open, he’ll need to build a huge lead early and hold the field at bay. One of our favorite golfers to watch, there’s no reason Aberg shouldn’t be one of the big favorites at Royal Birkdale.
7th
Tommy Fleetwood
Representing Country: England
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T16; 7-under par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: If you’re wondering how Tommy Fleetwood is still 7th in OWGR despite his last win coming at the end of 2025, it’s because he’s been excellent in whatever tournament he plays in.
With three Top 10 finishes in The Open (his best being 2nd place in 2019) Fleetwood goes into Royal Birkdale as one of the hometown favorites along with his fellow favorites Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose.
Like Fitzpatrick and Rose, history is certainly not on Fleetwood’s side. The last Englishman to win the illustrious tournament was Sir Nick Faldo all the way back in 1990.
This question is often asked around this time of the year, “Who is the best golfer in the world without a major championship?” Fleetwood? Hopefully, Tommy can shed that title with a huge effort at Royal Birkdale.
6th
Matt Fitzpatrick
Representing Country: England
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T4; 11-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2022)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic
Analysis and Reasoning: Another former U.S. Open winner who makes our Top 10, Fitzpatrick has had some incredible tournaments and some absolute duds. He’s remained extremely competitive in the prior two majors, but has struggled in some tournaments that few would consider to be held on difficult courses.
Since the U.S. Open is traditionally one of, if not the hardest tournaments of the season, betting on Fitzpatrick to deliver is considered a good move.
5th
Justin Rose
Representing Country: England
Previous Open Champion: 2013
2025 Open Finish: T16; 7-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2013)
Wins on Tour in 2026: Farmers Insurance Open
Analysis and Reasoning: This is what you need to know about Justin Rose and the justification for ranking him in the Top 5. Rose’s last three finishes in the 2026 majors have been T3 (Masters), T10 (PGA Championship), and T11 (U.S. Open).
A winner on the season and still in elite form at 45 years old, we’ll take Rose all day to be a top favorite to win The Open in his native England.
4th
Xander Schauffele
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: 2024
2025 Open Finish: T7; 10-under par
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2024), The Open (2024)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: The 2024 Open champion has been solid throughout the 2026 season despite going winless.
Schauffele’s major championship record this season is: Masters (T9), PGA Championship (T7), and the U.S. Open (T11). X is locked in and ready to contend for what would be his third major championship.
3rd
Wyndham Clark
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: N/A
2025 Open Finish: T4; 11-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2023, 2026)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, U.S. Open
Analysis and Reasoning: The last two years have featured two-time major winners: Xander Schauffele in 2024 and Scottie Scheffler in 2025, with both having won The Open in their respective years. Why not Wyndham Clark to make it three in a row?
Clark, now a two-time major winner will likely be a favorite going into every remaining tournament on the 2026 season and will look to boost his resume further to play his way into the 2027 Ryder Cup team.
2nd
Scottie Scheffler
Representing Country: USA
Previous Open Champion: 2025
2025 Open Finish: 1st ; 17-under par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2024, 2022), PGA Championship (2025), The Open (2025)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The American Express
Analysis and Reasoning: Despite missing his first cut since summer of 2022 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, Scottie Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world. If you see Scottie within range of the leaders on Saturday evening you just know that he’s going to make some kind of magical run on Sunday again and again.
It’s a kind of elite form that few possess, but Scheffler has seemed to be inches away from multiple wins throughout the season. His heartbreaks at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship don’t take away from his overall play, but instead give hope that Scheffler can make a run anytime, anywhere.
1st
Rory McIlroy
Representing Country: Northern Ireland
Previous Open Champion: 2014
2025 Open Finish: T7; 10-under par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2025, 2026), PGA Championship (2012, 2014), U.S. Open (2011), The Open (2014)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The Masters
Analysis and Reasoning: While Rory’s approach towards preparing for major championships is rubbing some people the wrong way, it seems to be working. Having already won the Masters, McIlroy was on track to be in the Top 10 at the U.S. Open before a Sunday collapse.
Having made seven Top 10 finishes at The Open (including a T4 in 2017 when the major was held at Royal Birkdale) McIlroy knows exactly what the course demands of him and how to handle those demands. One of the few golfers who took off to the UK to practice after the U.S. Open, expect McIlroy to outthink the majority of the field and make only the wisest of decisions.
Royal Birkdale will be all about keeping your drives long, but accurate, to stay in the green which McIlroy is completely capable of. His elite ability to get out of trouble with his world-class short game paired with his steely resolve in major championships gives him the total package needed to win the 154th Open.
Just Missed the Cut
Kristopher Reitan – Reitan’s stock is at an all-time high and his T30 finish last season shows what he is capable of. He hasn’t fared too well at the previous three majors, but we project him to finish somewhere 26th – 30th.
Brooks Koepka – Apparently, Brooks will need the remainder of the 26’ season to return to championship form. The five-time major winner was great on LIV minus his last season there, but has been pretty awful in his return to the PGAT.
Sam Burns – One stroke away from forcing a playoff at Shinnecock Hills, Burns is a fabulous golfer at most major championships. The Open is not Burns’ cup of tea, though due to his increased form, we expect him to make the cut and have one of his better Open finishes.
Patrick Reed – Like Burns and several other American golfers, The Open just isn’t meant for Reed and others. Reed’s form has suffered since his T10 finish at The PGA Championship. While he did have a good showing at the Scottish Open, it’s not enough to crack the Top 25.
Robert MacIntyre – Not many people know what to make of MacIntyre’s game. There’s sometimes he looks like a Top 5 golfer in the world and other times (75% or more) he looks lost out there. What could have been a miraculous win on home soil turned into mayhem at the Scottish Open as MacIntyre went from likely winner to out of contention rather quickly on Sunday.
Alex Noren – Noren’s Open record is a mixed bag. He’s quite good most of the time, but his T67 at Royal Birkdale in 2017 is a huge question mark. I like Noren to be one of the weekend surprises, but don’t think he figures into the best of the best just yet.
Joaquin Niemann – Niemann had a couple of great chances on the DP World Tour to boost his non-LIV status but ultimately came up short. Niemann is a fantastic young player who is a favorite year in and year out to win a major at some point, but that magic has likely been used up for the current season.
Conclusion
What did you think about our Top 25? Who did we get right, and who are we completely wrong about? The Open is arguably the greatest major championship for a number of pro golfers, but the courses require a certain set of skills and patience that few possess.
It will be necessary for the world’s best to sacrifice some power in order to keep the ball in the fairway. Those who out to out-drive their opponents may find their ball roll errantly into one of those pesky (and numerous) sand traps. Likewise, one bad roll or bounce may take your ball off a perfect lie and send it into a patch of rough – the result is praying that you get a miracle just to make par.
Do the Europeans have an advantage going into Royal Birkdale? Recent history says no, as Shane Lowry was the last European to win The Open back in 2019, but maybe he and his English neighbors are due.
The Open at Royal Birkdale begins this Thursday, June 16th and will feature the best the world has to offer.
