Robert TheodorsonThis Thursday (June 18 – 21) Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Long Island New York, will host one of the most anticipated events of the 2026 golf season, The 126th U.S. Open.
For many, the U.S. Open is often considered the premier proving ground – a handpicked selection that ranks preeminent amongst America’s most unforgiving courses.
The U.S. Open is comprised of championship golf courses which have stood the test of time, hosting major championships, sometimes for several decades, and have produced the greatest legends known the sport.
On Thursday, the very best in the world will assuredly be humbled by the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Through several points, and across multiple rounds, the course’s brutal makeup can make even the top professionals look like weekend hackers.
The U.S. Open can be a pro golfer’s nightmare and a fan’s dream entertainment. Let’s take a look at our Top 25 projected golfers going into The 126th U.S. Open!
Table of Contents
The 126th U.S. Open: Facts and Stats You Should Know Before Thursday
The Rankings:
20th – 16th – Cannot Be Counted Out
15th – 11th – A Betting Chance
The 126th U.S. Open: Facts and Stats You Should Know Before Thursday
- In the past ten seasons, eight golfers who have never won major championships captured the U.S. Open to win their first major. The only repeat champions were Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau. Koepka and DeChambeau are the only active golfers (minus Woods) who have won the U.S. Open more than once. Notable first-time winners include Dustin Johnson (2016) and Jon Rahm (2021).
- Career Grand Slam Watch: Scottie Scheffler and Phil Mickelson are eligible to capture the Career Grand Slam with a win at the U.S. Open.
- Dustin Johnson (2015) and Tiger Woods (2007) are the only second-place finishers in this millennium to come back and win the U.S. Open the following year.
- 2010 U.S. Open winner Graeme McDowell is making his first appearance in a major championship since the 2020 U.S. Open. McDowell was one of several LIV golfers who qualified for the U.S. Open through a qualifying event in Texas earlier in May.
- His birthday falling on June 21st, Scottie Scheffler’s will turn the big 3-0 on Championship Sunday.
- Wyndham Clark (2023) was the last U.S. Open winner to have won a tournament prior to the U.S. Open in the same season. Both Bryson DeChambeau and JJ Spaun went winless in 24’ and 25’ before capturing the major championship.
25th – 21st – The Outsiders
25th
Jason Day
Representing Country: Australia
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T23; 8-overpar
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2015)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: I am in awe of Day’s competitiveness over the past two seasons.
Quickly approaching 40, Day has stayed ultra-competitive and has out-dueled a number of younger, and presumably hungrier golfers. Making the cut at both majors this season, Day will look to turn back the clock and find his old form that earned him five Top 10 U.S. Open finishes and two runners-up’s along his illustrious career.
24th
Jordan Speith
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2015
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T23; 8-over par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2015), U.S. Open (2015), The Open (2017)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: The CJ Cup was supposed to be Spieth’s comeback tournament, but it was not to be.
While things didn’t turn out the way Spieth and his loyal followers planned, the three-time major winner has been having a solid 2026 season, having missed the cut only once (WM Phoenix Open) all year.
I don’t think anyone takes Spieth seriously as a true contender anymore, but he has an uncanny ability to beat out most of the field and make you think he has a chance on Thursday through Saturday.
23rd
Cam Smith
Representing Country: Australia
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: The Open (2022)
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Smith re-entered the world of elite golf with his surprise run at Aronimink. Ultimately finishing in 7th place, Smith showed flashes of his 2022-2023 form and made the world remember what a great golfer he once was.
Though he remains winless on LIV for the past two seasons, Smith has had some very close calls this season and looks like a true competitor wherever he plays. Though his major record has been downright awful before the most recent PGA Championship, it’s important to note that he did secure a 4th place finish in the 2023 U.S. Open.
Smith is easy to cheer for as his laid-back demeanor endears fans to him from all over the world. The cameras will certainly be on golf’s best mullet for four days!
22nd
Hideki Matsuyama
Representing Country: Japan
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2021)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Finishing in the Top 10 an amazing four times in his career, Matsuyama definitely has what it takes to win, the only question is can the 34-year-old find a way to regain his championship form and make the 2026 U.S. Open his first win of the season?
Matsuyama has finished in the Top 10 four times since his debut in 2013, the most recent of which was a 6th-place finish at Pinehurst in 2024. Based on his major championship history, the U.S. Open is actually one of Matsuyama’s preferred majors despite being a former winner at The Masters.
21st
Collin Morikawa
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T23; 8-over par
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2020), The Open (2021)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Pebble Beach Pro Am
Analysis and Reasoning: Morikawa started the season with a bang, but has since fallen out of the limelight due to consecutive poor performances at The Cadillac Championship (T62) and the PGA Championship (T55).
Despite the poor results as of late, Morikawa remains among the world’s elite, and thus a contender for what would be his third major title.
20th – 16th – Cannot Be Counted Out
20th
Aaron Rai
Representing Country: England
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T33; 9-overpar
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2026)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: PGA Championship
Analysis and Reasoning: Can Aaron Rai shock the world again and make it two in a row?
Aronimink certainly played like a U.S. Open-lite course and Rai was the best among a small group that had an honest chance at winning the 2026 PGA Championship.
Is Rai a one hit wonder? Only time will tell.
19th
Justin Thomas
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2017, 2022)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: JT has failed to make the cut in the past three U.S. Opens. He’s finished in the Top 10 twice, but that was when Thomas was in his prime (2017 & 2020).
JT makes our Top 25 due to his 2026 season of recovery and refocus which was on full display during an impressive PGA Championship run on an unforgiving course at Aronimink.
18th
Brooks Koepka
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2017, 2018
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T12; 6-over par
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2018, 2019, 2023), U.S. Open (2017, 2018)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Oakmont was one of the few bright spots for Brooks Koepka last season and we all know that Koepka tends to show up for the big ones which includes a tournament he’s won twice already.
Koepka drops mightily in the rankings due to a late injury suffered on Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open. Injured or not, we are not likely to see the best version of Brooks Koepka on Thursday as his post-LIV career has been wanting to say the least.
17th
Russell Henley
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T10; 5-over par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Charles Schwab Challenge
Analysis and Reasoning: It took some time, but Henley finally broke through with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge on the last day of May. In doing so, Henley re-entered the Top 10 in OWGR, a position range he had previously held for some time.
Having one of the better performances at Oakmont, Henley knows how to weather the storm when it comes to tough courses, so he should fare well at Shinnecock despite not being an apparent favorite.
16th
Tyrrell Hatton
Representing Country: England
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T4; 3-over par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Andalucia
Analysis and Reasoning: Hatton receives a huge bump in the standings by way of a convincing win at Real Club Valderama, considered one of, if not the most difficult course on LIV’s schedule.
Looking at his T4 finish at Oakmont last season, it’s hard to believe just how close Hatton came to winning the 125th U.S. Open if not for a blowup which plagued most, if not all of the field.
Last season I picked Hatton to win a major championship, The Open. While that prediction did not come to fruition, all signs currently point to Hatton being a major contender in the next two majors of 2026.
His eventual win would be a surprise to most, but Hatton fans know he is absolutely capable of pulling off the big win which has eluded him in his illustrious career.
15th – 11th – Betting Chance
15th
Ludvig Aberg
Representing Country: Sweden
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: While he remains an elite golfer and a favorite at any major championship he shows up to, the U.S. Open is more than likely not going to be the young Swede’s first major win. The T12 finish at Pinehurst was a nice note on his resume, but Shinnecock figures to be a more difficult task.
14th
Tommy Fleetwood
Representing Country: England
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: For Fleetwood, the magic has seemingly been drained since his shocking win at the PGA Tour finale in 2025.
Outside of a T5 finish in 2022, Fleetwood’s U.S. Open record is spotty at best.
Despite the last U.S. Open at Shinnecock being eight years ago, Fleetwood did finish second behind eventual winner Brooks Koepka. Fleetwood’s career has been a series of close calls, but this season doesn’t have the same feeling as those of yesteryear.
13th
Justin Rose
Representing Country: England
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2013
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2013)
Wins on Tour in 2026: Farmers Insurance Open
Analysis and Reasoning: Even at 45 years old, Rose is having one of the best seasons of his career. While certainly not close to done competing in his mid-forties, a second U.S. Open win would likely be the last of his career and would put him up there with the best of his era.
12th
Patrick Reed
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T23; 8-over par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2018)
Wins on DP World Tour in 2026: Hero Dubai Desert Classic, Qatar Masters
Analysis and Reasoning: Reestablishing himself as one of the best golfers in the world, Reed hasn’t played as much golf in 2026 as his colleagues, but when he has played, he’s made it count.
Playing as little golf as possible has somehow worked out for Reed as the last two tournaments he has played in have been The Masters and PGA Championships, where he has finished T12 and T10, respectively.
Apparently, rust isn’t a factor for Reed as he is easily the most hyper-focused golfer in the world when it comes to majors.
11th
J.J. Spaun
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2025
2025 U.S. Open Finish: 1st: 1-under par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2025)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Valero Texas Open
Analysis and Reasoning: The reigning champ, Spaun was the only golfer at Oakmont to finish the grueling four-day tournament under par.
Based on his major championship record, Oakmont was likely an anomaly, but Spaun is having a pretty nice 2026 despite missing the cut at both majors.
While it’s unlikely that he’ll successfully defend his title, nobody is going to walk into Shinnecock with more confidence than Spaun.
The Top 10 – The Favorites
10th
Wyndham Clark
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2023
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2023)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: CJ Cup Bryon Nelson
Analysis and Reasoning: Wyndham Clark is on fire. Finishes of 1st, 3rd, and T11 in his last three matches, Clark is heating up at the perfect time to make a run for his second major.
Clark is a former U.S. Open champion and more recently a PGA Tour winner with an astounding 30-under par cumulative score at the CJ Cup Bryson Nelson. Clark won the CJ Cup after a lengthy hiatus from the winner’s circle, his last being the Pebble Beach Pro Am in early 2024.
9th
Chris Gotterup
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T23; 8-over par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Sony Open, Waste Management Phoenix Open
Analysis and Reasoning: Gotterup’s 2026 resume is as follows: 2 wins, 1 missed cut, always a threat to win.
I’ve been a Gotterup fan since last season and view him in the same lens as an Aberg or Hovland, one of the young guys who is destined to win a major championship.
Gotterup showed he has what it takes by finishing in the Top 25 at Oakmont, his first U.S. Open since 2022 when he made his majors debut.
8th
Bryson DeChambeau
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2021, 2024
2025 U.S. Open Finish: CUT
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2024, 2021)
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Singapore, LIV South Africa
Analysis and Reasoning: It’s one of those ‘you had to be there’ moments – DeChambeau was on top of the world after his 2024 U.S. Open win at Pinehurst and was a huge favorite going into Oakmont. The result, a missed cut, was as big a shock as any I’ve seen in recent major championship history.
Seemingly unbothered by all the noise surrounding his LIV Golf league, the long-driving DeChambeau is still killing it on LIV, but has had downright awful performances at The Masters and PGA Championship, two tournaments he came very close to winning last season.
Honestly, even at the mid-point of the season, we don’t know what version of Bryson we’re going to get at Shinnecock; it’s really anyone’s guess after the two missed cuts at Augusta and Aronimink.
Still, it’s nearly impossible to kick such a talent out of the Top 10 of our rankings, especially a man with a U.S. Open resume like DeChambeau’s, and so he stays, at least for one more season.
7th
Cameron Young
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T4; 3-over par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The Players, Cadillac Championship
Analysis and Reasoning: Young has had some recent challenges with difficult courses at Muirfield and Aronimink. Still, the world’s number three golfer is a smart pick to win the U.S. Open for what would be his first major.
Young’s star may not have faded as strongly or as quickly as we all would imagine. Since his wins came close together, many expected Young to break through at both Augusta and Aronimink, but it wasn’t to be. Fortunately, Young remains focused and remains a force week in and week out.
6th
Matt Fitzpatrick
Representing Country: England
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2022
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T38; 11-over par
Major Championships Won: U.S. Open (2022)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic
Analysis and Reasoning: Another former U.S. Open winner who makes our Top 10, Fitzpatrick has had some incredible tournaments and some absolute duds. He’s remained extremely competitive in the prior two majors, but has struggled in some tournaments that few would consider to be held on difficult courses.
Since the U.S. Open is traditionally one of, if not the hardest tournaments of the season, betting on Fitzpatrick to deliver is considered a good move.
5th
Xander Schauffele
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T28; 1-under par
Major Championships Won: PGA Championship (2024), The Open (2024)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Finishing in the Top 10 in both The Masters and PGA Championship, X has put together a solid season with a number of non-major Top 10s, with The Players serving as his best effort with a 3rd place finish.
If the pattern continues, Schauffele will be in contention on Sunday, but he’ll need to close the gap against other golfers who have been able to seal the deal, something Schauffele has been unable to do this season.
4th
Rory McIlroy
Representing Country: Northern Ireland
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2011
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T19; 7-over par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2025, 2026), PGA Championship (2012, 2014), U.S. Open (2011), The Open (2014)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The Masters
Analysis and Reasoning: McIlroy’s recent form has been outstanding despite the lack of wins since Augusta. Like Scheffler, we tend to hold Rory to a different standard than the rest of the field and are usually disappointing with results that don’t end up being wins.
Like many at The PGA Championship, McIlroy’s game was great, but all it took was just a few golfers to play a tad better, and a miracle win from an unlikely source. Trust in McIlroy to be a true contender at Shinnecock.
3rd
Sam Burns
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: N/A
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T7; 4-over par
Major Championships Won: N/A
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: N/A
Analysis and Reasoning: Sam Burns is my “are you kidding me?” pick. Slept on often, Burns has an amazing resume for the 2026 season and is quite good at the U.S. Open. I do not hold the lack of wins against Burns, though I admit he is being picked on vibes for the most part.
Burns makes his first appearance on our Major Championship Top 25 list after missing the internal cut for our Masters and PGA Championship rankings.
Burns has done well for himself in major championships this year with great results at Augusta (T7) and Aronimink (T26). Burns’ Top 10 finishes at Pinehurst and Oakmont signal that he is clearly ready to make the big jump for his first career major.
I love Burns to be the biggest upset of this major, much like Rai was for the PGA Championship.
2nd
Jon Rahm
Representing Country: Spain
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2021
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T7; 4-over par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2023), U.S. Open (2021)
Wins on LIV Tour in 2026: LIV Hong Kong, LIV Mexico City
Analysis and Reasoning: Rahm’s T2 finish at Aronimink removed any doubt that he can still legitimately contend for a major championship after years of buzz suggesting his LIV Golf schedule had all but destroyed his chances.
Nobody could have predicted Aaron Rai coming in out of left field to snatch the victory away from Rahm and some other heavy favorites. Had it not been for Rai’s heroics we very well could be discussing him as the clear-cut number one favorite to win at Shinnecock.
1st
Scottie Scheffler
Representing Country: USA
Previous U.S. Open Champion: 2025
2025 U.S. Open Finish: T7; 4-over par
Major Championships Won: The Masters (2024, 2022), PGA Championship (2025), The Open (2025)
Wins on PGA Tour in 2026: The American Express
Analysis and Reasoning: Until he wins, the U.S. Open will year in and year out be the most high-profile event of the season for Scheffler.
The T14 finish at Aronimink would have been a fine accomplishment for 99% of the golfers out there, yet we perhaps unfairly hold Scottie to a higher standard, as shown by the media’s constant questioning as to why the world’s number one golfer isn’t winning every tournament he plays in.
Perhaps there will be another number one option in our rankings for The Open at Royal Birkdale this summer should Scheffler not pick up the Career Grand Slam, but we are staying the course with Scheffler in our top spot for the third consecutive major championship of the season.
Just Missed the Cut
Viktor Hovland – Despite the close call in 2025 at Oakmont, I can’t justify putting Hovland in my Top 25, but he’s just outside the cut, ranked 26/27th depending on recent results on The PGA Tour.
Joaquin Niemann – After dominating the LIV Golf league in 2025, it had been a quiet season for Joaco until his breakthrough at LIV Korea in late May. Niemann’s performance at Aronimink was solid, but his past performances at U.S. Opens leave a lot to be desired.
Keegan Bradley – If Bradley was going to win another major in his career, Aronimink was probably his best bet as he was the last man to win a big tournament there. Now at 40 years old, Bradley is a long shot to win any major, even though the skill is blatantly apparent during a few tournaments every season.
Robert MacIntyre – MacIntyre was one of only a few select men who had an honest shot at winning the U.S. Open last season. This year hasn’t gone quite as planned for the Scotsman, and his form is currently out of what we would consider a Top 25 contender for this major championship.
Si Woo Kim – Kim is a great golfer and is having a great season, but the U.S. Open is by far his worst major. Kim has never finished in the Top 25 since his first attempt way back in 2017.
Conclusion
Shinnecock is considered one of the most difficult courses in America, and for good reason. This U.S. Open is going to require golfers achieve constant and consecutive FIR/GIRs like no other.
Getting a bad bounce and ending up in the rough may not be a death sentence like it was in Oakmont, but it’ll be close.
There are a number of good storylines about to emerge at Shinnecock. Chief among them will be:
- Can J.J. Spaun shock the world and repeat as champion? Two years in a row would elevate his status to another level.
- Was Aaron Rai’s win at Aronimink a fluke? If no, is someone of his skill level able to win at any of the other three majors?
- First-time major championship watch, Young Guns edition: Aberg, Hovland, Gotterup, and Young – are any of these top golfers good enough to make the U.S. Open their first major championship? They would be following the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, and more!
- Is there another Aaron Raid in the field? A surprise contender that is so far down the odds list, or not listed at all that has the will and fortitude to pull off one of the biggest upsets in golf history?
We’ve listed our Top 25 going into the 126th Open and are confident that one of these men will emerge the victor.
If history tells us anything, a first-time winner is likely to be named champion, and most of the world, including us, are predicting that that man will be Scottie Scheffler.
